Michigan Leading Economic Indicator for December 2008

February 8, 2009
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The Grand Rapids Business Journal/e-forecasting.com MI Leading Economic Indicator, Michigan's early bird of economic activity, decreased in December 2008 to a reading of 100.9, where 2000 is set equal to 100.

The private forecasting service said the composite Michigan index of state leading indicators, which is produced jointly with Grand Rapids Business Journal, fell by 1.1 percent in December following in November a decline of 1.2 percent.

Only one of the 10 components that make up Michigan's Leading Indicator had a positive contribution in December: Interest Rate Spread.

Nine of the 10 components had a negative contribution to Michigan's Leading Indicator in December: Unemployment Claims, Weekly Hours in Manufacturing, Building Permits, Exports of Manufactures, New Orders (Detroit Business), Consumer Expectations (Regional), Stock Prices (National), Productivity Barometer (Detroit Business) and Employment Barometer.

Looking at its six-month growth rate, a signal of turning points, Michigan's Leading Indicator went down by an annual rate of 7.9 percent in December, after a decline of 7 percent in November. This compares to a long-term annual growth rate of 2.4 percent, the same as the annual growth rate of the state's overall economic activity.

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