Michigan Leading Economic Indicator April 2009

June 15, 2009
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The Grand Rapids Business Journal/e-forecasting.com Michigan Leading Economic Indicator, the state’s early bird of economic activity, decreased in April 2009 to a reading of 96.8, where 2000 is set equal to 100.

The private forecasting service said the composite Michigan index of state leading indicators, produced jointly with the Business Journal, fell by 0.6 percent in April following a decline of 1 percent in March.

Five of the 10 components that make up Michigan's Leading Indicator had a positive contribution in April: Consumer Expectations (Regional), Stock Prices (National), Interest Rate Spread, Productivity Barometer (Detroit Business) and Employment Barometer. Five of the 10 components had a negative contribution to Michigan's Leading Indicator in April: Unemployment Claims, Weekly Hours in Manufacturing, Building Permits, Exports of Manufactures and New Orders (Detroit Business).

Looking at its six-month growth rate, a signal of turning points, Michigan's Leading Indicator went down by an annual rate of 9.4 percent in April, after a decline of 9.6 percent in March. This compares to a long-term annual growth rate of 1.5 percent, the same as the annual growth rate of the state's overall economic activity.

Evangelos Simos is chief economist of the consulting and research firm Infometrica Inc.

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