Michigan Leading Economic Indicator for November 2009

January 18, 2010
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The Grand Rapids Business Journal/e-forecasting.com Michigan Leading Economic Indicator, Michigan's early bird of economic activity, increased in November 2009 to a reading of 100.4, where 2000 is set equal to 100.

The private forecasting service said the composite Michigan index of state leading indicators, which is produced jointly with the Grand Rapids Business Journal, went up 1 percent in November after an increase of 1 percent in October. This is the fifth consecutive month for an increase in the growth rate, a good sign that the economy will soon shift and return to expansion.

Eight of the 10 components that make up Michigan's Leading Indicator had a positive contribution in November: Unemployment Claims, Weekly Hours in Manufacturing, Building Permits, Exports of Manufactures, Consumer Expectations (Regional), Stock Prices (National), Interest Rate Spread and Employment Barometer.

Two of the 10 components had a negative contribution to Michigan's Leading Indicator in November: New Orders and Productivity Barometer.

Looking at its six-month growth rate, a signal of turning points, Michigan's Leading Indicator went up by an annual rate of 4 percent in November, after an increase of 1.5 percent in October. This compares to a long-term annual growth rate of 1.5 percent, the same as the annual growth rate of the state's overall economic activity.

Evangelos Otto Simos is chief economist of the consulting and research firm e-forecasting.com. He may be reached at esimos@e-forecasting.com

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