Michigan Leading Economic Indicator for December 2009

February 22, 2010
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The Grand Rapids Business Journal/e-forecasting.com Michigan Leading Economic Indicator, Michigan's early bird of economic activity, increased in December 2009 to a reading of 101.6, where 2000 is set equal to 100.

The private forecasting service said the composite Michigan index of state leading indicators, which is produced jointly with Grand Rapids Business Journal, went up 1.1 percent in December after going up 1 percent in November.

Eight of the 10 components that make up Michigan's Leading Indicator had a positive contribution in December: Unemployment Claims, Weekly Hours in Manufacturing, Building Permits, Exports of Manufactures, Consumer Expectations (Regional), Stock Prices (National), Interest Rate Spread and Employment Barometer.

Signs of economic expansion are being led by Michigan’s manufacturing sector pushing for growth.

Two of the 10 components had a negative contribution to Michigan's Leading Indicator in December: New Orders and Productivity Barometer.

Looking at its six-month growth rate, a signal of turning points, Michigan's Leading Indicator went up by an annual rate of 6.4 percent in December, after an increase of 4 percent in November. This compares to a long-term annual growth rate of 1.4 percent, the same as the annual growth rate of the state's overall economic activity.

Evangelos Simos, chief economist of the consulting and research firm e-forecasting.com, is editor for International Affairs in the Journal of business Forecasting.

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