Michigan Leading Economic Indicator for October 2010

January 5, 2011
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The Grand Rapids Business Journal/e-forecasting.com MI Leading Economic Indicator,

Michigan's early bird of economic activity, rose in October to a reading of 108.3, where 2,000 is set equal to 100.

The private forecasting service said the composite Michigan index of state leading indicators, which is produced jointly with Grand Rapids Business Journal, went up 0.2 percent in October after remaining flat in September.

Four of the 10 components that make up Michigan's Leading Indicator had a positive contribution: New Orders (Detroit Business), Stock Prices (National), Interest Rate Spread and Employment Barometer. Six of the 10 components had a negative contribution in October: Unemployment Claims, Weekly Hours in Manufacturing, Building Permits, Exports of Manufactures, Consumer Expectations (Regional) and Productivity Barometer (Detroit Business).

Looking at its six-month growth rate, a signal of turning points, Michigan's Leading Indicator went up by an annual rate of 5 percent in October, after an increase of 6.1 percent in September. This compares to a long-term annual growth rate of 1.4 percent, the same as the annual growth rate of the state's overall economic activity.

Evangelos Simos is chief economist of the consulting and research firm e-forecasting.com. He may be reached at eosimos@e-forecasting.com.

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