States LEI drops slightly

August 20, 2011
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The Grand Rapids Business Journal/e-forecasting.com MI Leading Economic Indicator, Michigan’s early bird of economic activity, went down in June to a reading of 108.3, where 2000 is set equal to 100.

The private forecasting service said the composite Michigan index of state leading indicators, which is produced jointly with Grand Rapids Business Journal, edged down 0.1 percent in June after going up 0.2 percent in May.

Four of the 10 components that make up Michigan’s Leading Indicator had a positive contribution in June: Exports of Manufactures, Interest Rate Spread, Productivity Barometer (Detroit Business) and Employment Barometer. Six had a negative contribution: Unemployment Claims, Weekly Hours in Manufacturing, Building Permits, New Orders (Detroit Business), Consumer Expectations (Regional) and Stock Prices (National).

Looking at its six-month growth rate, a signal of turning points, Michigan’s LEI six-month growth rate weighed in at 3.1 percent, after May’s reading of 3.7 percent. This compares to a long-term annual growth rate of 1.1 percent, the same as the annual growth rate of the state’s overall economic activity.

Evangelos Simos is chief economist of consulting and research firm e-forecasting.com. He may be reached at eosimos@e-forecasting.com

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