States economic indicators rise slightly

September 25, 2011
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The Grand Rapids Business Journal/e-forecasting.com Michigan Leading Economic Indicator, Michigan’s early bird of economic activity, went up in July to a reading of 108.5, where 2000 is set equal to 100.

The private forecasting service said the composite Michigan index of state leading indicators, which is produced jointly with Grand Rapids Business Journal, went up 0.2 percent in July after edging down 0.1 percent in June.

Four of the 10 components that make up Michigan’s leading indicators had a positive contribution in July: Unemployment Claims, Stock Prices (National), Interest Rate Spread and Productivity Barometer (Detroit Business).

Six of the 10 components had a negative contribution to Michigan’s LEI in July: Weekly Hours in Manufacturing, Building Permits, Exports of Manufactures, New Orders (Detroit Business), Consumer Expectations (Regional) and Employment Barometer.

Looking at its six-month growth rate, which is a signal of turning points, Michigan’s LEI six-month growth recorded a rate of 3 percent, following June’s reading of 3.1 percent. This compares to a long-term annual growth rate of 1.1 percent, which is the same as the annual growth rate of the state’s overall economic activity.

Evangelos Simos is chief economist of consulting and research at e-forecasting.com. He may be reached at eosimos@e-forcasting.com

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