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Michigan Leading Economic Indicator for June 2009
The Grand Rapids Business Journal/e-forecasting.com MI Leading Economic Indicator, Michigan's early bird of economic activity, decreased in June 2009 to a reading of 95.4, where 2000 is set equal to 100.
The private forecasting service said the composite Michigan index of state leading indicators, which is produced jointly with Grand Rapids Business Journal, fell by 0.2 percent in June following a decline of 0.5 percent in May.
Four of the 10 components that make up Michigan's Leading Indicator had a positive contribution in June: Consumer Expectations (Regional), Stock Prices (National), Interest Rate Spread and Employment Barometer.
Six of the 10 components had a negative contribution to Michigan's Leading Indicator in June: Unemployment Claims, Weekly Hours in Manufacturing, Building Permits, Exports of Manufactures, New Orders (Detroit Business) and Productivity Barometer (Detroit Business).
Looking at its six-month growth rate, a signal of turning points, Michigan's Leading Indicator went down by an annual rate of 10.1 percent in June, after a decline of 11.2 percent in May. This compares to a long-term annual growth rate of 1.8 percent, the same as the annual growth rate of the state's overall economic activity.
Evangelos Simos is chief economist of the consulting and research firm Infometrica Inc.